At ELEVATE 2025, economic experts explained their assessment of the current freight landscape—and where it's heading. The Economic Panel, moderated by Gary Cornelius of TCU Inc., brought together leading analysts Dean Croke (DAT Solutions), Lee Klaskow (Bloomberg Intelligence), and Emily Clayton (American Trucking Associations) for a direct discussion on the shifting fundamentals driving our industry.
A Truckload of Contradictions
Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Solutions kicked off the session with an update on truckload dynamics. Small carriers continue to find opportunities in the spot market—but volatility remains high. Small carriers recently showed a net increase in capacity. However, compared to pre-pandemic norms, entry and exit activity remains elevated—suggesting carriers are still experiencing significant turnover and not yet in balance. Large carriers continue to manage risk through fleet reductions. From the mid-2022 peak, fleet size has declined 20%. While the pace of downsizing is slowing, optimism remains cautious.
Economic Trends Point to a Slowdown
Emily Clayton of the ATA connected the freight market to broader economic trends. While there had been hopes for a slight increase in demand before the US tariff increases, persistent high interest rates continue to weigh on the economy—even as inflation begins to ease. The ripple effects of these circumstances are being felt across supply chains. Consumer demand is soft, and retailers are taking a conservative stance on inventory replenishment.
No Crystal Ball for the Future of Freight Demand
Lee Klaskow, senior freight analyst at Bloomberg, illustrated a roadmap of uncertainty for economic growth and freight demand. The freight transportation groups have underperformed the broader market over the last 12 months. From the Suez Canal to the US trade policy– the last few years have highlighted the risks of geopolitical and black swan events for economic recovery. Klaskow emphasized the importance of agility in unpredictable markets. Future success for carriers and brokers will depend on strategic planning and operational flexibility.
Amidst the fluctuations in data-rich slides, the conclusion was evident: market intelligence, operational discipline, and adaptability are now more crucial than ever.
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